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A trade you can actually make

Posted by hobsonschoice1 on March 17, 2011 – 4:10 pm

We’ve been talking about the wrong trade here.

How about one the Bengals can actually make during the lockout?

Trade the fourth pick.

They can’t talk to players. They can’t talk to player agents. They can’t even talk to their literary agents. To borrow a line from the Five Man Electrical Band’s 1970s classic “Signs,” “You ain’t supposed to be here.”

But they can talk to other teams. But they can trade draft picks.

Trade the fourth pick.

It sounds like there is going to be no consensus quarterback there at No. 4. In that case, Trade the pick. Heck, give it away if you have to.  Unload it before the flame gets any lower. OK, OK, just make sure you get a fourth-rounder. But don’t pick hairs, just trade.

There are only two top 10 QBs out there. Arizona wants a QB at 5? San Fran wants one at No. 7?  Tennessee at 8? Washington at 10?

Trade the pick.

Wage scale or no wage scale, the fourth pick is still going to be a huge number. There still may be some room for the first-rounder to negotiate, so if there is one training camp the rookie quarterback would seem to have the leverage in contract talks, it’s this one. And there are some tough agents at the top.

 Tom Condon’s group represents Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert and Georgia receiver A.J. Green, and those have proven to be tough negotiations for the Bengals. In ’05, No. 1 pick David Pollack held out for three weeks. A quarterback holdout like that (or any position, really,) in what looks to be a truncated offseason would be devastating.

See Smith, Akili, 1999.

The lower the pick, the less chance of a stalemate.

Trade the pick.

The draft selection points would no doubt give you at least a third-rounder and maybe even a second, depending how far they went down in the first. But the fourth pick is so unattractive, take the fourth-rounder if you have to.

Don’t get me wrong. You’ll get a very talented position player at No. 4. But in this draft, which is deep  but lacks the marquee players, the difference between what you get at Nos. 4 or 8 or 10  or even 15  and 16, home of Jacksonville and Oakland, respectively, (two other teams that can use a QB), is looking to be pretty small.

(The Jags head coach and OC, along with the Titans head coach, GM and OC were on hand for Gabbert’s workout Thursday.)

  Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones and Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara aren’t rated that far behind Green and LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson. Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley could be hanging around and is he that far off Alabama’s Marcell Dareus? And if you go down far enough, you’ll be staring at the best running back in the draft in Alabama’s Mark Ingram.

Trade the pick.

But the reason(s) to do it is to get the extra pick or picks. This draft is supposed to be stocked in rounds three through five, great places to get a safety, guard, running back, or blocking tight end.

Trade the pick.

And the longer you wait the better. Get through the Pro Days, the private workouts, the team visits, and it’s just like a soap opera any day of the week. Somebody is going to fall in love with one of those top five guys.

Trade the pick.

And it’s a trade that can actually be done.

We’ve been talking the wrong one.


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Posted in Hobson's Choice | 26 Comments »


26 Responses to “A trade you can actually make”

  1. By mwindle1973 on Mar 17, 2011 | Reply

    Right on Hobs! Actually we have talked a little about it, but glad to see you devote a whole post to it. BTW Mel Kiper agrees with you (I understand that you probably consider that a negative thing). Seriously though, in his last mock he said that Carolina and us have the best chance to trade down out of all the top 10 teams. And I agree with him on the best way to accomplish it. Send out strong signals that we are taking a QB with that #4 pick. Even if teams don’t take us seriously, they have to because of the Palmer situation. If one QB has already been picked, somebody will want to move in on the other before he’s gone. If nobody has picked one you still have the chance a team wants only one of them, and trades up to get them before they go. Either way I’ve come to the conclusion the only way we mess this #4 pick up is by taking a QB with it. I’d rather they steer clear of WR, but I think that could work too. But really best if we pick a defender. Say Patrick Petersen!

  2. By bengalpirate on Mar 18, 2011 | Reply

    Yeah, trade the pick. Especially if we can stay in the 10-20 pick slot of the 1st round with a trade, as well as picking up maybe an extra 3rd or 4th round. We have the 3rd pick in the 2nd round and this draft is so deep in defensive talent, we can get guys who probably would have gone in the 2nd round in the 3rd round, or even the 4th round. The key for me is getting a 1st round type guy with the 3rd pick of the 2nd round. Yeah, trade the pick!!!

  3. By happyguy77 on Mar 18, 2011 | Reply

    I cannot say how much I agree with this stance. TRADE DOWN! TRADE DOWN! TRADE DOWN! My head swirls with the possibilities that a mid 1st rounder and 1 or 2 extra picks might add to the pot. I just hope MB can see the vaule there as well. Who Dey!

  4. By 454rat on Mar 18, 2011 | Reply

    As much as I like AJ Green, I don’t see the Bengals taking him for 2 reasons – the belief that is too high a pick for a WR; and his agent. The only other player I would take that high would be V. Miller, but I doubt he is there at 4. MB will have to be patient and make an “on the clock” trade to capitalize on another team’s desperation. We must also take into account that Carolina could take Gabbert, freeing up Newton for Buffalo who wouldn’t pass on him in any way, shape, or form. If this happens there is not much possibility of trading down since the only “worthy” QB’s would be gone and everyone would be adjusting there boards. In that scenario I would take Miller and target either Ponder/Dalton in RD2 or a WR if a top one slips. No matter how it plays out – please, please, please MB DON”T take a QB at #4. Not that he would read this and listen…I wanted Steven Jackson, we get Chris Perry…I wanted Marshall Faulk, we get Big Daddy…I wanted the Ditka trade, we get Akili Smith…and it goes on and on and on………

  5. By overthroensamoan on Mar 18, 2011 | Reply

    No offense but I don’t get it. Not for a 4th rounder. Another 2 or 3 is another story. Not to mention Marvin has had spotty success at best picking that round. I could see moving down and grabbing Pouncey along with a 2 or 3. A extra 4th rounder just doesn’t get me that excited especially if Green turns into a real game changer.

  6. By mwindle1973 on Mar 19, 2011 | Reply

    454rat: I hear you on the WR issue (although Green continues to sway me). On QB I see you there too. I like the second group of guys a lot better than the first. And they all need a year or 2 to be able to start anyway don’t they? So why waste a first round pick on a project. Von Miller, I’m on the fence. He and Petersen are the best atheletes in the draft. But where do you play him in our 4-3. He put on 10lbs already since January and he’s only 246 lbs. But if he could fit into our scheme, then I agree snatch him up. Where I disagree with you is on you saying Green and Miller are the only players worth the #4 pick. I think there are more players worthy of the #4 pick than in any draft I can remember.

  7. By mwindle1973 on Mar 19, 2011 | Reply

    overthroensamoan: I think you might be misunderstanding. We would get way more than a 4th round pick. In fact if we traded from #4 to #5 we would get a 4th round pick. The teams put a value on each pick. So would trade close to equal value. The value of the #4 pick is 1800. Say we went from #4 to #10. The 10 pick is worth 1300. So they have to trade us picks worth 500. We would get that teams 2nd and 5th round picks. Which are #42 (worth 480), and #170 (worth 24.4). Making it them giving us 504.4 for 500. If we traded from #4 to say #13 we would get the teams 2nd and 3rd rounder. Just for dropping 9 spots! Drop beyond there you could start getting extra picks for next year or players if they could be traded this year.

  8. By jaywhit27 on Mar 19, 2011 | Reply

    A fourth round pick won’t cut it. You aren’t getting a 2. A three would be the only acceptable trade. AJ Green is going to be a monster. If you pass on him without getting enough in return, it will just be another draft for us to complain about for 15 years. I like Julio Jones too, but it’s like saying I like Calvin Johnson, but it’s ok, we got Hakeem Nicks.
    Drafing a QB would be useless. I don’t believe any of the top QB’s will be great. I say AJ Green in round one.Christian Ponder round two.
    Somebody needs to convince Carson to stay or the idiot fans of MY team will have gotten exactly what they wanted, and they will remember what a bad QB looks like!

  9. By Mel on Mar 19, 2011 | Reply

    I’m in total agreement. Move back a few spots and take someone like Julio Jones. With the talent so close, there is bound to be someone that fits the bill at 8, 10, or 12….and the Bengals have many needs. Please don’t take one of the QB’s at #4. I think you’ll find one that’s just is good in round 2 or 3 without breaking the bank on a high risk/reward situation. Stockpile picks for the versatility of moving up and taking the guy you covet in the 2nd or 3rd round.

  10. By fikshun8 on Mar 19, 2011 | Reply

    I’ve been thinking for years that the Bengals should always trade down out of the first round on general principle. 1) Mike Brown has a problem paying players according to their slotting, 2) they could use more “depth” help that extra draft picks would provide and 3) the Bengals scouting staff is a bit thin to begin with. When looking at the last 12 first round picks, you’ve got 3 outright busts (Akili Smith, Peter Warrick, and Andre Smith), 2 bad breaks (Chris Perry and David Pollack) and 3 players who have bolted or are about to bolt via free agency or trade demands (Justin Smith, Carson Palmer, and Jonathan Joseph). The Bengals need to play to their strengths. High round drafting isn’t one of them.

  11. By mwindle1973 on Mar 19, 2011 | Reply

    Hobs: Another request for you to do some sooth-saying. With the hearing coming April 6th that challenges the lockout. DO you think there is any chance the court stops the lockout and we go back to business? Or is there any chance that the trading of players will be allowed on draft day? With the Eagles at 23 and Kolb’s expected trade value at a mid to late first round pick. It’s a pretty easy trade, we get Kolb and the 23rd pick and they get the 4th pick. It’s about even value if you consider Kolb at the same value as the 15th pick. Then we have Kolb and at that point we can draft a QB with the 23rd pick, where he’s more worth the value. To me that’s a great situation. And most pundits seem to think that Cincy is one of the more likely teams to trade for him even if it is after the draft. It’s all a matter of whether this lockout stands up in court and how fast a decision is made.

  12. By kaptkurt on Mar 20, 2011 | Reply

    I like the idea of #4 pick, and I’m conviced that Andre Smith is the reason fans want us to trade down. That said, all indications are this is a deep draft. The screwed up off season will continue with teams forced to use draft picks to fill holes instead of free agency so I can see a team overpaying in draft picks to move up to plug a hole at CB or LB if they fall or QB. I agree that a first round QB should not be drafted at #4 but given MB love for QBs it woudn’t surprise me.

  13. By hobsonschoice1 on Mar 21, 2011 | Reply

    I guess I didn’t make myself clear. I said even if you get just a fourth-rounder, trade it, knowing that you can obviously get more. I’m just saying the fourth pick is so unattractive, get rid of it any cost.

    And that’s the reason to trade it – there are a lot of good players at that spot – from about 4 to 14, and there’s not a hell of a lot of difference between them.

    Windy, I have no idea and nobody does. It could go either way. All I know is whatever happens, it will be appealed. I’m not sure the Bengals are big Kolb guys. Andy Reid says he doesn’t know if they’re interested.

    Here’s the thing about the Bengals scouting department. Nobody in the league is saying they’ve got a lack of talent. At least they haven’t said it in the Marvin Era.

    I think people would agree. They’ve under achieved, which would indicate they’ve got enough talent. I mean, if you sweep the AFC North, that’s a sign you’ve got a good roster. And when you go 2-4 in the North the next year with pretty much the same personnel, well, I’m not sure it’s a talent issue.

    And I think they’ve sifted some nice players in the fourth, starting with Domata Peko. Plus, last year Geno Atkins and Roddrick Muckelroy were solid contributors in their niches. Robert Geathers hasn’t been the big sacker, but he’s been productive and versatile. Stacy Andrews got a huge free-agent contract from the Eagles and while Anthony Collins has had trouble getting into the lineup, they’ve won games with him at right tackle.

    I don’t think you can call Carson Palmer, Justin Smith, and Johnathan Joseph bad first-round picks because they left or may leave. They’ve all had big-time value for this club. Say what you want about Smith, but the guy is going into his 12th season and you can still write him in for seven sacks and 70 tackles and when he was here it was 90 tackles.

    Not a bust. Sure, you’d like the guy to be a double-digit sack guy with the fourth pick, but you got a very produtive and reliable player.

    Smith and Palmer have been to two Pro Bowls each and Joseph has been an alternate, so I’ve got to think they were solid. You can’t put them in the Andre-Akili-Warrick class.

    To be fair, it’s too early to label Andre Smith anything yet.

  14. By bengalmaniac on Mar 21, 2011 | Reply

    Trading down for more picks is how the Patriots have built winning teams without many superstars, just a bunch of hard workers. If the lockout gets resolved, trade the pick to Washington for McNabb and a later pick. He has run the offense and knows it inside & out and knows the coaches as well. Plus Gruden’s relationship with Allen could help facilitate that. Or trade straight up for Carson. Let him spend a season in DC and see what the fans do there. He thought garbage on his lawn was bad, he ain’t seen nothing yet!!

  15. By kingbengal on Mar 21, 2011 | Reply

    THE BENGAL’S would be CRAZY to trade away the fourth pick . Draft A.J.GREEN trade CHAD to philly for KLOB,Then trade CARSON to the 49er’s or raiders for two second round pick’s and a third round,getting the first second round pick this year. And the BENGAL’S will be better and actually win this year they will be a lock to win 10 to 12 game’s. The running with Benson and Lenoerd will make KOLB a pro-bowl QB. Because i know Mike Zimm,will draft a DE in the second round this year,maybe two of them this year IF we trade CARSON?,Carson really need’s to be traded if he blame’s the COACH’ES for his POOR PLAY,Just AS Chad need’s to look at game tape his HEAD is NEVER in the GAME IF he ain’t getting the BALL.

  16. By tepidfan31 on Mar 21, 2011 | Reply

    If Joseph is gone, Peterson must be the pick. If Joseph stays, Peterson is still the best pick; think safetys of the Steelers and the Ravens. You don’t find these guys later, and they are difference makers for years on the defense.

  17. By mwindle1973 on Mar 21, 2011 | Reply

    One thing I don’t get about the Kolb issue. Isn’t it against the current lockout rules to discuss trades? Either in private or in public? It must just be being overlooked. But perhaps that’s why the Bengals haven’t inquired about him. The fact they aren’t supposed to be doing it. And beyond that there is no reason to tip your hand at this point until you can actually trade. I know that whether they are sold on Kolb or not. If you look at the FAs that will be available and the QBs that you could get a team to trade he and McNabb are the best two options by far. I think either one could come into play. I just think they would rather have Kolb than McNabb. Whatever happens, what I don’t think will happen. Is we won’t draft a guy this year and expect him to start. I would bet it all that we will draft a guy and bring in a guy from free agency or a trade. If you remember back at the Senior Bowl, Lewis said they would look to the draft, free agency, and players on the trade block to fill the need at QB.

  18. By mwindle1973 on Mar 21, 2011 | Reply

    Hobs I think if the NFL wins the players current bid to stop the lockout, I’m hanging up my confidence in the court system altogether. It’s open and shut. If the union has decertified then the they can’t strike. Therefore the league loses it’s rights to lockout the players. Basically their whole argument is the union can’t decrertify just to sue the NFL over anti-trust violations. The simple fact is they can. Why else would you decertify? It’s a fools argument. To verify my own knowledge of the law (which is limited), every lawyer I’ve seen weigh in on the subject agrees. It’s a stalling, wasting time type tactic. Even checked with my father who was a collective bargaining negotiator for UAW for 21 years. He agreed the lockout is illiegal, because the union decertified. And that arguing they can’t decertify for any reason is ludicrous. It’s obvious the owners strategy at this point is to stall and try to waste time.

  19. By mwindle1973 on Mar 21, 2011 | Reply

    Oh great I see Brown made a call for the players to come back to the negotiating table now too! Why is Goodell and the owner’s trying this stupid tactic? We all know there is no negotiation table. It’s now a settlement table. And all the owners have to do if they want to continue to negotiate a settlement is to file the appropriate paperwork in court. The chance for negotiating a CBA is over. Someone gives these jerks the newsflash. On the other hand after months I finally understand Brown’s position on Palmer. Sure he can get a 1st and 2nd rounder this year. But I’m sure from his perspective, his pro-bowl QB is worth those picks this year and next. And I see now that if he can’t get close to value then it’s bad business to do the trade. But with the owners playing the news cycle like politicians, I don’t know if I can stay tuned in for all this crap. It’s really getting to point of being enraging.

  20. By 303bengalguy on Mar 22, 2011 | Reply

    A 1st round pick that high can net a mid-1st and a 3rd all day. Only Mike Brown would settle for a mid-1st and a 4th, and I’ll bet that’s what any team hoping to trade with us is looking to manipulate him into.

    Please don’t talk about drafting a RB either. Benson should get resigned and he’s solid as a rock. He’s come to town and gave it his all, whereas we don’t know diddly about Ingram. He could be the next Benson on the Bears while we already have the Bengal-version of Benson which is much better.

  21. By jamison007 on Mar 22, 2011 | Reply

    @mwindle: stay tough, can you imagine how sweet next year’s playoffs will be? There are a lot of Bengal haters out there, and its just cuz we got some boyz at the core of our team that got skills and are tough. Memo to our ‘boyz': work hard in your workouts, then work harder, practice to avoid injury, get tough mentally, think mean and lean…out work everyone else! Even a punk accountant like me is using that approach as I look to take the Flying Pig 10K for Turkey Day. Be ready Bengals and Bengaldom, they are going to laugh at us as we take the field to start the season, but by the end of it, trust me…they will be saying, “Who Dey?”!

  22. By mwindle1973 on Mar 23, 2011 | Reply

    It’s good to hear Lewis say we won’t get caught up in locking in on a position in the draft. I really hope that’s what Brown does. Because it seems we were only talking about offensive players. I know he said we didn’t do that in 09, but history says we did. It was a given that year we had to take the best OT available. So we took the 3rd one off the board with the 6th pick, leaving the first DT BJ Raji on the board. Andre may be a great palyer still. But all the same it’s obvious we reached for him. Raji had 5.5 sacks as a 3-4 NT, he’s Shaun Rogers with a work ethic. And was the center of the Super Bowl champs D. 2 years later we still have questions at RT and Pat Sims as a starting DT. Imagine Raji and Peko in the middle. Teams like the Ravens, Steelers, Pats draft talent, they worry very little about the current state of the roster.

  23. By mwindle1973 on Mar 23, 2011 | Reply

    You know one thing lost in this CBA stuff. Is the NFLPA has said they are willing to give the NFL a bigger % of revenues than they did under the last CBA. That in itself is a bridge to a deal right there. But they said they would only do it once the owners showed the financials that prove team revenue is growing slower than league revenue. The owners won’t show that info. Now maybe they want to protect that info, saying it’s confidential. But the Packers who are a publicly owned team, have to release this info all the time. And they haven’t comprimised any “trade secrets” like the NFL claims will happen. I think if the books are opened you will find what Mike Brown has said for years. The big market teams have revenue growth in excess of the league revenue growth. The small markets revenues are stagnant at the same time. That’s what the NFL doesn’t want exposed. Because then this is actually a revenue sharing issue amongst the owners.

  24. By tepidfan31 on Mar 24, 2011 | Reply

    Mike Brown must get his priorities straight. His first obligation is to his fans, the second to the players, the third to the coaches, and lastly to himself and management. However, he has it precisely in reverse. Case in point: Palmer. His obligation to the fans is to present the best possible product to them. Since Palmer’s decision affects the draft and the eventual makeup of the team, he must determine, prudently prior to the draft, whether he is coming back or not. If he is not coming back, his obligation is to make the best possible decisions as to how to field a great product for the fans next year. If he is primarily concerned with his ego, that he cannot fathom or accept a malcontent wanting to leave, and thereby intends to penalize him, regardless as to the betterment of the team, he has his priorities screwed up.

  25. By 454rat on Mar 25, 2011 | Reply

    mwindle1973: I should have been a little clearer – yes there are plenty of worthy players for the #4 slot, but few that meet our immediate needs – i.e. WR, QB, LB, & S. Everything else is luxury of competition in order to upgrade. As far as the free agent QB’s go I would prefer Kerry Collins over McNabb.
    bengalmaniac: The reason The Pats & Steelers can draft the way they do is all success driven. If the Bengals could ever sustain some success they could draft that way too. I agree with what you say, I just feel this team is in no way able to draft that way.

  26. By samoanjungle on Mar 27, 2011 | Reply

    All I can say is that the Bengals need to understand there is never going to be that one guy, that one superstar, that is going to come in and make all of the difference. Just build the team all around. Yes, trade the pick and get some extra picks. Take the best player available. You don’t get to be elite by always patching holes. Build by bringing in the best you can and if that means you end up with a few guys riding the bench that are good enough to start so be it. We know how Brown thinks though so I expect Gabbert or Newton to be the pick and the same old rhetoric about how you have to have a great QB to win. Lets not throw it on one guy anymore. If Ponder or somebody like that is there in rd 3, fine, grab him and develop him. Trade the pick and build the whole team, not just a skill position.

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