Over Analyze This (draft)

Posted by hobsonschoice1 on March 24, 2011 – 3:40 pm

We are sitting in the war room of Any NFL Team in Anywhere USA with the draft a month away.

The GM is over here. The head coach is over there. The director of player personnel is by the board. The offensive coordinator is next to the head coach. The regional scout is on the other side of the board. And the position coach is on his way in from the airport coming back from a Pro Day.

The mesaurables have been digested. The game tape has been graded. The interviews have been conducted. The receipts for the combine and pro days have been handed in.

Now is the time for the study, the debate, the second-guessing, and the second looks. Is it paralysis by analysis? Indecision overload? Complication by compilation? When is enough information too much information? This is the time of the year when the locks of February become the gambles of April without playing a snap.

Let’s go into The War Room of Any Team and find out as they debate the kid out of Nazareth who came into the draft heralded as the Savior for some lucky team:

“We’ve got him. No brainer. The unquestioned first pick in the draft. An immortal lock.”

“What can’t he do? Brings them back from the dead. Makes the blind see. Feeds the hungry from the sky.  Wonderful family. His mother is a legend all around the world. And not only that, he’s great in the community. His nickname in Jerusalem is “The Prince of Peace.”

“Hold on, we’re going to have to check out some things that have been rumbling around Herod’s forums and the Pharisees’ web sites.”

“What are you talking about? The guy’s got it all. A miracle worker on the field, a great presence as a locker-room leader, a mentor to the practice squad and IR guys alike. You’re talking about the face of your franchise for not only the next decade, but for eternity.

“But we’ve got to research some anger management issues. Apparently he had a violent episode in the temple and the scribes gave him some bad ink.”

“And we’re looking into potential violations of the alcohol policy. Something about turning water into wine.”

 “There’s also some confusion about his upbringing. No one seems to have a record of the first 30 years of his life. And the NCAA is looking into gifts the Three Kings gave him the night he was born.”

“Plus, we also hear he’s got an entourage of at least 12 that goes with him everywhere. There are whispers about another colleague, a Mary Magdalene. And there could be work ethic problems. He supposedly once wandered in the desert for 40 days.”

“Wow, the scribes will bury us in Rome if we draft him at all, never mind No. 1 overall.”

“Don’t you think we might be overanalyzing this just a little bit? The tape doesn’t lie. Go back and look at the Sea of Galilee cutups. I mean, the guy walks on water. Look at the reception at the Palm Sunday crowd.”

“Do you think we can get him as a free agent?

“Sure, why not?  Nobody will remember this draft in two weeks.”

“OK. But I don’t know about that. Suppose next year we make you write the Gospel on how we talked ourselves out of drafting the Almighty?”

Posted in Hobson's Choice | 19 Comments »

19 Responses to “Over Analyze This (draft)”

  1. By meandmymorningpaper on Mar 24, 2011 | Reply

    Great piece Mr. Hobson, great piece!

  2. By zaleuhe on Mar 24, 2011 | Reply

    Funniest thing I’ve read for awhile. Thanks!!!

  3. By overthroensamoan on Mar 25, 2011 | Reply

    Also coming from the draft experts out of Galilee he’s heavily involved in the community. He has twice been seen feeding crowds well over 4000 and on his free time is an avid fisherman and an accomplished wood worker.

  4. By mwindle1973 on Mar 26, 2011 | Reply

    Great one Geoff! They said it was the interview with the High Priest at the Temple that ruined it for him. But it was reported from a source inside the church that he had the #1 pick locked up until his 40 time wasn’t fast enough. He objected that this was orginally a test to judge the ability to cover kickoffs and punts. That QBs, or any player on a scrimmage play rarely ran 40 yards in a straight line. He even begged them to look at his 10 yd split instead. I’m told all this did was label him a bad leader who wouldn’t fit in there system. Still there were cries from the public that maybe the system should change for him. The High Priest just consider it a threat to his authority and from there I heard they pretty much just wanted to crucify him.

  5. By whodeysteve on Mar 26, 2011 | Reply

    Reading this I’m reminded that since I’ve been a fan of the Bengals there’s a couple of things you have to know about when the Bengals draft.
    1.) We don’t trade pick’s. We might trade a player for a pick but we never just trade pick’s.
    2.) We draft from the South and Midwest region(with the exception of USC). Since 2006 we have only drafted 2 people from the Northeast region. Matt Sherry TE in 08 and Ethan Kilmer SS in 06. So we love homegrown talent.(Paul Brown also loved homegrown talent ala Greg Cook)
    3.) Cincinnati will not mortgage talent. This will show it’s self in bust like Akili Smith. But will also show it’s self in pick’s like Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap.

  6. By psychostats on Mar 28, 2011 | Reply

    Finally, the head coach gestured toward the GM and explained why the pick would never work.

    “Redeemers are like queen bees. You can only have one, and we have ours.”

  7. By bengalpirate on Mar 28, 2011 | Reply

    It’s too bad that the NFL Draft isn’t the week before, during Easter weekend, as I’m sure the Mel Kiper types will crucify some picks from Thursday and Friday and then we could see who is resurrected on Sunday’s during the season, if we have one. 🙂

  8. By mwindle1973 on Mar 29, 2011 | Reply

    Geoff, I know you keep saying that Ocho will not be back. But why? Why do you feel this way? Joe Reedy keeps saying it to. The only reason he sites is Ocho’s 6M contract price. But that’s just Reedy spreding falsehoods knowingly. He’s put it in print over and over. The Bengals “owe” Ocho $6M is how he always puts it. He knows like any informed person does, that Ocho received the 3.5M bonus for this season long ago. So the Bengals “owe” him $2.5M for this season, not $6M. Now unless they just want him off the team, or want to get some trade value before he departs. But otherwise why wouldn’t you keep him at this price tag? And if you say he’s a problem child, then why did we keep him on the roster, and bring in a guy with a worse attitude than him to be his partner last season when the price tag was much higher? What’s funny to me is ever since CHad did his trade me or else routine in late 07/early 08, the media has said he won’t be us the next season. Every offseason they say this then mock us to pick a WR in the first round (other than 09). But we never pick the WR in the first round.

  9. By mwindle1973 on Mar 29, 2011 | Reply

    Let’s get something straight here. Our Presidents can use coke and weed in college. But our NFL QBs can not? Dan Marino was the 5th QB taken at #27 in 1983. His 16 on the Wonderlic didn’t help. But mainly it was rumours he dabbled a little excessivly in cocaine that dropped him. Was it true? We don’t know. Did it matter. We don’t know that either. But he is in the HOF. Lawerence Taylor and OJ Simpson have admitted using cocaine through most of their careers. They were both great team leaders and the amongst the cream of the NFL greats. Yet as individuals you can’t begin to explain how flawed they are. Ryan Mallet has an arm like Dan Marino. And he can make those kind of throws. He is slow and against OSU in his last game he had trouble throwing on the run. But Brady runs a 5.23. But the main complaints are the 2 year old reports of drug use. And the perception that he is not athlectic enough. That he will be to slow to set his feet again if he has to move. So is he Dan Marino or Ryan Leaf?

  10. By mwindle1973 on Mar 30, 2011 | Reply

    I guess another big question with Mallett would be is he just too tall? He’s listed at 6’6″ & 6’7″ depending on the source. Not sure what he measured at the combine. But this reminded me of an exceprt from a book that did a collection of facts about body size and position. And how it has changed over the years. Written in 05, I did a search to find it again and read it. According to this book, there has never been an effective QB over 6’5″. That before the mid 80’s it was thought 6’4″ was considered the max. It shows the vast majority of top QBs through the mid 80’s to mid 00’s were 6’5″. It listed guys that were 6’6″ and above but I had heard of few of them. I don’t think I seen an NFL starter on the list. Can anyone think of a past or current QB that was more than 6’5″

  11. By mwindle1973 on Mar 30, 2011 | Reply

    OK 1 search gave me a couple answers. Mallet is 6’6″. And Derek Anderson and Scott Mitchell were both 6’6″. Not the greatest of QBs. Anderson did have the Pro Bowl season in 07. And Mitchell had a couple 4000+ yd seasons. And there has never been a QB over 6’5″ throw 100 TDs or start 75 games. And in fact only 13 QBs over 6’5″ have ever played a down in 90 NFL seasons. This all comes from an ESPN article done last year. You wouldn’t think an inch would mean so much.

  12. By jamison007 on Mar 30, 2011 | Reply

    Ok, given what #mwindle just shared, just another reminder to Cincy and Bengaldom that Palmer and his family are a rare breed that fits well in Cincinnati. Carson has brought 0 off field drama and plenty of winning drives, especially in ’09. Hey Carson, get your butt back on this squad when the season gets started! I like AJ all the more at 4 because given all the ‘what ifs’ that a QB draft or FA brings, better to have a healthy stable of receivers to intice QBs around the league to look this way. But darn it, Carson is our guy – he can take us to the promiseland! Though, pragmatically, worst case, again, better to have the tools to make a QB want to play here!

  13. By hobsonschoice1 on Mar 30, 2011 | Reply

    I think the QB height thing is because tall kids never get put at QB early in life. They’re almost always receivers, or, if they have some beef, tight end, and then they seem to migrate to offensive tackle. Or else, they’re put right in the gym at 10 years old and told not to come within 100 yards of a football field.

    Tallest guy I can think of is San Diego State’s Dan McGwire, 16th pick in ’91 of Seattle and never made it five years in the league.

    Psycho – There’s a lot of comings and goings buzzing around the hive.

    Steve – Another principle is never trade up. Has only happened twice, I think, in the ’95 first round and ’02 third round.

    Just looking on the surface, I would think in the last decade that many teams pick primarily out of the south given the dominance of the SEC and the reach of the Big 12. I mean, I love the Big East, but if you’re looking for football players I’ve got to believe the Big Ten has more.

    Look at the AFC North drafts in 2010. The Ravens had seven picks and three were from the south (Texas, Alabama, Morehouse). Five of the Browns’ eight were from the south (Florida, Tennessee, Texas, South Florida, South Carolina.) Six of the Steelers’ 10 were from the south (Florida, Virginia Tech, Southern Methodist, Tennessee, Clemson, Georgia Tech).

    The only Big Ten players taken by the four clubs last year were the two Ohio State guys taken by Pittsburgh (Thaddeus Gibson and Doug Worthington) and the one loner from the Northeast was the Ravens’ Arthur Jones, a fifth-round defensive tackle out of Syracuse.

    Windy _ You’ve heard the Marvin Lewis quotes any time The Ocho is thought of, right? Either The Ocho’s not coming back or it is the biggest smoke screen since the Bengals said they were going defense in the Klingler draft.

    I don’t think they do anything with The Ocho until they know they’ve got everybody accounted for and healthy. Call it the Antonio Bryant Audit. Plus, they can’t trade him or cut him during the lockout but what do they do with him if they draft a receiver in the first, second, or even third?

    They don’t owe him any money. He’s scheduled to make $6 million in this, the final year of his deal.

    No question The Ocho is one of the Bengals’ all-time greats and characters. But he’s 33 and his yards per catch has dipped ever since ’07’s 15.5. Last year’s 12.4 was his lowest in a season Carson Palmer quarterbacked at least 13 games.

    How much does he have left and is it enough to cut off some younger juice?

  14. By mwindle1973 on Mar 31, 2011 | Reply

    But Geoff Ocho is only technically scheduled to be making 6M. He has already been paid the 3.5M bonus for the 2011 option year in ’07. It’s just do we pick up the option at a 2.5M salary when the time comes. Either way at a salary of only 2.5M he will be a relatively cheap WR on our roster. Or he will be easy to trade for a 4th or 3rd round pick. I hear you on the avg yds p/catch. But it could just be an issue with our pass offense. Palmer’s #s after 07 really dived too. I’m with you everything says he will not be here next season. His behavior back in Dec/Jan. Lewis’ comments about Ocho from about Nov on. Everything but that tiny little 2.5M price tag. But maybe the real question is can we afford to keep SImpson off the field any longer? That guy shredded the Baltimore D like few I’ve ever seen. And they are right whent hey drafted him. The WR he reminds you most of is vintage Ocho Cinco.

  15. By mwindle1973 on Mar 31, 2011 | Reply

    I’m with you Jamison. Palmer come home! It’s exciting thinking about a new QB. But it won’t be as exciting when we are breaking him in for the next 2-3 seasons. Would be much better to bring a new guy in and let him sit behind Palmer for a season or 2, or maybe longer.

  16. By hobsonschoice1 on Mar 31, 2011 | Reply

    The Bengals paid him $3.5M a few years ago for the right to pay him $6M in 2011. The salary isn’t $2.5M. If he’s cut or traded, they don’t have to pay him anything. If there is a salary cap, the hit would be only $700,000.

  17. By 2ndboot on Apr 1, 2011 | Reply

    Geoff.. You left out the part of the other side who thinks he is just a regular guy and a bunch of guys in Rome made it all up to to consolidate power. Your team savior has been DEAD for over 2000 years and has no magical powers whatsoever.. Oh yeah..this is the guy your team wants..A dead guy that millions have been at war over for a LONG time.. The guy is OBVIOUSLY engaged in bigamy with millions of nuns married to him too.. This guy has some serious character issues man.. And our team savior is promising us eternal life if we only believe in him? What? most players don’t last ten years much less forever.
    And hey, I live in Texas so this guy is supposed to ride in from the west on a white horse carrying a Colt .45 so save the Union, but the union decertified so…It’s not REALLY a union..It’s more like a bunch of rich guys pretending they need union representation.
    Hey! maybe the savior can save the unions! Forget football.. The rich have run off with all the money so draft this guy for the sake of every working man and we can have cops who aren’t on strike with the blue flue for the next 20 years!

  18. By mwindle1973 on Apr 1, 2011 | Reply

    Thanks for the clarification on the salary Hobs! I was confused. So they can wait to decide to keep, trade or cut him until the the season offically begins. Good to know the cap hit is that small too. There were so many stories about this back in January I got confused about what the actual situation was.

  19. By whothey2010 on Apr 2, 2011 | Reply

    first of all lets all pray that this b-a gets figured out. I have found myself getting more and more into baseball as we all wait to see what happens with our 2011 in the nfl . I cant be the only guy that was totally stoked about the Carson Palmer we saw back in 2005 and it seems like wether or not anyone else wants to toss in their two cents, palmer hasnt been the same, and yet the die hards like me all still love this guy. I can understand why hes upset we all acted like a bunch of babies last season and blamed alot of it on carson, I know we will all be hurt when we see him wearing another uniform sometime in the near future. I suppose from the looks of things we arent going to be able to go with Newton or Gabbert, So i say we go with Mallet or Ponder, bring in a veteran to mentor him, and see what happens from there, i like hasselbeck given the 2010 we had guess were all in for a suprise, and please god dont draft anymore Diva’s and thanks for all the good times Carson You will be missed!!

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