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Mocking the real world

Posted by hobsonschoice1 on April 11, 2011 – 7:01 pm

Paul Perillo must have been hit in the head by one of the many line drives surrendered by the Red Sox starters this season.

(With the Patriots Day game a week from Monday morning, the cry now is “One if by Lester, Two if  by Beckett and lights out if anybody else.”)

Perillo is one of the stalwarts of Patriots.com who asked me to participate in the Web site’s 2011 Writers Mock Draft. I’d rather write a mock draft than be in one. In fact, I’d rather get my teeth cleaned, or get a flat tire, or take a drop out of the water at the 14th at Lindale.

You can’t win in a mock draft because it’s all guesswork, but Perillo was nice enough to invite me in and, let’s face it, I’m going to need him in the next week or so when the Bengals.com Mock Media Draft tries to get to the 35th pick in what will no doubt be a festival of phone tag and e-mail angst.

Go to Patriots.com and the first three picks are familiar ones here because they’re the same ones I got last week from Darin Gantt of The Rock Hill Herald and Mike Klis of The Denver Post with Cam Newton and Von Miller, respectively for the Panthers and Broncos. Mark Gaughan of The Buffalo News gave me Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus at No. 3 for the Bills, just like Chris Brown of Buffalobills.com gave Perillo.

OK, so I may be throwing darts here but the Bengals need a QB badly just to line up and who says there is going to be one left at No. 35 that can take an Opening Day snap? Of course, none of them are a very good Opening Day answer, but it is what it is. Like I told Perillo, I’ll take Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert but that doesn’t mean Carson Palmer is getting traded.

But maybe someone will be there at No. 35 if the Bengals go elsewhere at No. 4.

According to the Pats’ Mock, only three quarterbacks will be gone in the 32 picks of the first round in Newton, Gabbert and Jake Locker to Seattle, taken No. 25 by ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay. That would leave folks like Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett (too flighty?), TCU’s Andy Dalton (not enough arm strength?), Florida State’s Christian Ponder (too brittle?) and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick (too raw?).

But however many quarterbacks go in the first round, add one because no doubt Perillo’s man Bill Belichick is waving that 33rd pick around like a coupon book. Figure that pick gets traded to a team that missed a QB in the first round. Like Arizona, Minnesota, Tennessee, Washington just to name a few. Or what if Buffalo, picking behind the Bengals in the second, wants to move up?

So that’s four QBs by No. 34.

And before that, what if somebody reaches in the mid to late first like Miami (No. 15), or San Francisco (No. 20), or somebody like the Cards or Redskins trades down into the first?

It could get thin in a hurry at QB.

There is one school of thought that says there are so many questions about the quarterbacks that teams aren’t going to move up to get one. That they’ll just sit there and take what comes because they don’t want to give up a second-rounder or third-rounder for a gamble pick. One working stat is that 55 percent of the NFL’s starters are taken in the top three rounds.

This is where not having free agency and a lockout before the draft fouls you up. You’d have a pretty good grip on what teams are going to do at quarterback because they already would have signed the veterans so they could get in and learn the playbook as soon as possible.

Finally.

The real world is as daffy as a sportswriters Mock.


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Posted in Hobson's Choice | 18 Comments »


18 Responses to “Mocking the real world”

  1. By kaptkurt on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    Like the article but not the pick Hob. Here’s my “ifs” with that pick. IF there is a cap in the new CBA (and everyone in a small market better pray there is) paying top 5 money to a rookie gives Palmer his ticket. All he has to do is report and we have way too much cap space allocated to QB. IF Gabbert or Newton is on the board at #4, trade down with Wash or Minn or any other team that needs QB help and get extra picks.That will give us extra players and take one of your potential trade partners away from the Pats. IF we draft a QB and plan to start him, it would be suicide. The young guns in the NFL that have played well all had extensive work in the off season. It looks like there won’t be much off season work this year. Sending a rookie into that mess will ruin him. IF we draft a QB that high, our offense will be worse than ever. Going to a new system without OTAs will be tough.

  2. By bengalpirate on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    It is easy for me to say, but I again hope that the Bengals take the highest rated layer at the 4 slot. Trade down only if you can get a mid 1st round and at least a 3rd and another lower round pick as well. There is enough talent in the first 15-20 1st round picks, that maybe they’ll get lucky and get a potential Pro Bowl player. I’ll take that over a gamble at QB, if Newton or Gabbert are not available. At least we have some real NFL action to watch, even if it is only the draft. Any updates on the court front about the lockout?

  3. By bengalanthony13 on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    Please god, no. Not Gabbert. He has bust written all over him. I’d rather take the BPA at #4 (AJ Green) and then gamble with a QB in the second. I prefer Dalton and Kaepernick to Ponder, personally, but everything I read says that the Bengals coaches are enamored with Ponder. It’s not that I don’t think that Ponder doesn’t have “it”, I just think he’s too oft-injured. Concussions, shoulder injuries, etc. Isn’t this the type of thing that has led to Carson’s decline? To me, it seems as if Ponder is one big hit away from Haloti Ngata to call it a career. And, given the current state of the O-Line, that’d be roughly half of one season before that happens. I think the best bet is to look at Dalton or Kaepernick at #35, or trrade back into the first and grab Locker. I think Locker is going to be a good pro QB.

  4. By overthroensamoan on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    I just don’t see a QB out there worthy of a top 5 pick. As the draft gets closer I still say Green is the pick but I’m beginning to wonder if moving down a few spots and taking Pouncey along with getting maybe another 2 would be the best move for the team as a whole. Then take Ponder (Bradford had a big injury ? as well) and use that extra pick to upgrade the D line.

  5. By hobsonschoice1 on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    We’ve already waved the flag here for a trade down at No. 4, but you can’t trade in a mock or, believe me, it would have been done in the three previous Bengals.com, Mock Media Drafts. Well, maybe not last year because Gresham was the guy eye-balled all the way. But definitely now and ’09.

    None of these guys are going to save the day in 2011. And history tells us only a couple are going to pan out, not all of them. Before you label a guy injury prone, I’d take a deep breath and think about Drew Brees.

  6. By wnyjoe on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    Find me a 2nd round QB that became a “Franchise” QB for the team who drafted him. Go ahead… While I’m waiting, here’s my point. 2nd round QB’s don’t work for whatever reason. Non 1st round QBs are never given the Franchise title unless they win a superbowl. With the “Franchise” title, QBs can only be good enough to win, but will never be THAT guy. If teams evaluate a QB and grade him as “Franchise”, then the chances are more than just your team has graded him the same way and said QB won’t last until round 2. Ok so you found 2 successful 2nd round QBs since 1992. Brett Favre and Drew Brees. Here’s the list:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=PmawA If the Bengals grade either Newton or Gabbert as “franchise” caliner QBs. Then that’s the pick, 100%, hands down. If they pass, then thats all you need to know about the player. Lets say the Bengals go Green at #4. Then a prospect with a 1st round grade falls into round 2 (pick 35). Let’s say Mark Ingram. Do they take a QB who might be replaced with a top 5 picks in 1-2 years. Or take the guy who makes their team not only better this year, but for the future? You can’t just take a QB because you need a QB. It has to be a guy you CAN build around and a guy you’re WILLING to build around.

  7. By overthroensamoan on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    Hey wnyjoe no franchise QBs in round 2. What about Boomer and Drew Brees. Both franchise QBs without a doubt.

  8. By overthroensamoan on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    Sorry. Forgot Brees was drafted by SD but Boomer was the real deal.

  9. By hobsonschoice1 on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    More thoughts on Locker. Jon Gruden loves him, but there are some scouts that feel his inaccuracy isn’t adequate enough to take him among the top guys.

    Is this class really different than all the others? Do you really know if a guy is a franchise QB? If the scouts were flipping a coin between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf, that’s all you need to know.

  10. By batesvillecigarroom on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    This is easy, if he is available you have to take Patrick Peterson. Paktkurk is right, no OTA’s no chance for a qb.

  11. By jamison007 on Apr 12, 2011 | Reply

    @kaptkurt – great post and agree. I get the impression and also hope and believe that Marvin takes character really seriously these days as well. That just makes a 50/50 risk look a lot less attractive. The word early on was all about the depth of backers, linemen and core type players in the draft, best way for a small market city to get stay on track is to restock the building blocks. A trade down to get even more stock piled will work well. I also dont mind us getting best at 4 either. I read early that AJ Green is a super humble kid that has all the right character.

  12. By mwindle1973 on Apr 13, 2011 | Reply

    @wnyjoe: Randall Cunningham & Boomer Esisason were both round 2 and palyed for the team that drafted them. Lets look at your point is and look at franchise QBs outside of round 1 and drop the “played for same team” requirement. Matt Cassel r7, Matt Schaub r3, Marc Bulger r6, Tom Brady r6, Matt Hasselbeck r6, Jake Plummer r2, Mark Brunell r5, Trent Green r8, Brad Johnson r9, Bret Favre r2, Stan Humphries r6, Gannon r4, Steve Beuerlein r4, Mark Rypien r6, Jeff Hostetler r3, Jay Schroeder r3, Neil Lomax r2, Joe Montana r3, Steve DeBerg r10, Danny White r3, Ron Jaworski r3, Dan Fouts r3, Brian Sipe r13, Lynn Dickey r3, Joe Theismann r4. That’s 27 QBs in 36 years (70-05), or .75 per year. Now you can argue with a few of these guys, but I’m sure I missed some too. But either way chances say it can happen and does. I would say that the chance for a second round or beyond gem is as good as the chance for a first round bust.

  13. By mwindle1973 on Apr 13, 2011 | Reply

    Hobs I couldn’t agree more. Leaf or Manning was a big debate back then. And this thing is Leaf could have been great. He was his own problem. All we can do is do our homework. Then pick a QB we like in the first 3 rounds. If he’s available at a pick that matches his value. I’m interested to see if teams have this QB group graded different. Like Mallett & Locker especially. You have to have a few teams wanting to bring them into top 15/top10 range. teams that want to drop them into early-mid 2nd round range. I’m really interested in getting a look at Mallett on Gruden’s QB show tomorrow night. He has the most allure to me as a pocket QB. His height is as unclear as anything else about him. In an ESPN article I seen him listed as 6’5 & 3/8ths”. CBS has him at 6’7″. NFL.com at 6’6″.

  14. By wnyjoe on Apr 13, 2011 | Reply

    @Hobs You’re right. This QB class is different. In both ways. There is some really good talent in the 2nd round this year. If there’s ever a year where a 2nd round QB emerges as a Franchise guy. It would be this year. I really like Dalton and Stanzi and think they can be solid in a west coast based system. On the other hand. With the CBA, NFL a passing league, lack of franchise QBs around the league and no free agency. Teams are desperate. Every QB in this draft is pushed up 10 picks because of the situation. Some even more. My point was more about taking a 2nd round QB. Is he your franchise guy? Or do they draft one next year given the opportunity? If they do in 2012 or 2013, then why even waste the 2nd roun pick in 2011? Id rather have a player that fits into the long term big picture.

  15. By wnyjoe on Apr 13, 2011 | Reply

    I didn’t include QBs before 1992 because it’s a completely different game now. And I’m only talking about 2nd round QBs because its a unique circumstance. A first round QB is your guy. He’s who you’re confident you can build around. 3-7 round QBs are considered to be developmental QBs by most. They have the luxury of sitting and learning for a few years. There’s almost no pressure on them. Not much is expected. But 2nd round QBs are in between. They don’t have 1st round talent, yet they’re expected to eventually start. Fans don’t consider them a project. We and GMs are expecting him to start within 2 years. When you look at the success rate of first round QBs over the past 10 years. Its about 50-50. The success rate for 2nd rounds QBs? Without looking. I can only think of Brees. The link is in a previous comment. But obviously the rate is much much worse.

  16. By bengalanthony13 on Apr 13, 2011 | Reply

    Dear wnyjoe,

    What’s a “GM”?

    Regards,

    Bengals fans

  17. By mwindle1973 on Apr 13, 2011 | Reply

    @batesvillecigarroom: I totally agree. If Patrick Petersen is there you should take him. I don’t care what team you are, where you pick, or how many CBs you have. IMO every team that passes on him is making a big mistake. He’s the best CB prospect I remember since Charles Woodson who went #4 ironically enough.

    @wnyjoe: Even if you go back to 92 on my list of QBs. That’s 10 in 17 years (92-05). And I don’t think much has changed except that teams reach a lot more for QBs now than they did before the ’83 draft. But look at New England. They found 2 franchise QBs in the 6th & 7th round in the last 10 years. I agree with you about Dalton and Stanzi. I think they are viable options in the 2nd and 3rd round respectively. Stanzi could be a sleeper, he could be a backup too. But I think he’s got the “it” factor.

  18. By mwindle1973 on Apr 13, 2011 | Reply

    IDK if anyone caught Mallett on the Gruden QB show. But I’m kind of sold on him now. He is the most developed QB on a mental & physical level. Gruden really tested him, grilled him hard. If I had to rate them now it would be Mallett, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Dalton. I very curious if we are sold on one or more of these guys. Either way I think this year at #4 we are going to get a great player. And with us having 4 players in the first 100 picks, I think this draft is deep enough to get 3-4 current and/or future starters

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