How long is the QB reach?

Posted by hobsonschoice1 on April 21, 2011 – 11:32 pm

The Thursday scuttlebutt spilling around the draft’s quarterbacks is that two guys the Bengals reportedly like and are working out this weekend, TCU’s Andy Dalton and Florida State’s Christian Ponder, are going to be gone in the first round and that Cincinnati has no shot to get them if they don’t trade back up into the first round from the 35th pick.

That is, of course, if they don’t take Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert at No. 4, the two quarterbacks that the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock calls the “cleanest” of the top prospects.

In Wednesday’s conference call, Mayock said because of the Bengals vacuum at quarterback, “If you believe any one of those kids is the right guy you’ve got to take him over anybody else in the draft.” And that means wide receiver A.J. Green and SAM backer Von Miller.

But Sports Illustrated‘s Peter King has had people telling him that offensive coordinator Jay Gruden loves Dalton and King is theorizing that Jon Gruden is telling his brother to convince Bengals president Mike Brown to do anything he can to trade up from 35 to get him.

Dalton may be the hot guy among the media and in some teams, but there are also people in the NFL that think he’s still the third-round pick he was when this process started. One thing that probably means nothing but is interesting to keep in mind is how the Bengals have always taken tall, big quarterbacks at the top of the draft. Dalton, a shade under 6-2, doesn’t exactly fit the mold.

Look at the guys they’ve taken in the first round and second round going all the way back to the University of Cincinnati’s Greg Cook in 1969. Cook was 6-4, 220 pounds. In 1979, Jack Thompson was 6-3, 217. In 1984, Boomer Esiason was 6-5, 224 pounds. In 1992 David Klinger was 6-3, 210 pounds. In 1999 Akili Smith was 6-3, 220, and in 2003 Carson Palmer was 6-5, 230.

Dalton stands something like 6-1 and 7/8, and he’s listed in most places at 6-2, 213. Only Klinger weighed less. But the body dimensions he comes closest to is the Bengals’ best, third-rounder Ken Anderson, a 6-2, 212-pounder.

Probably means nothing, but what means something is that guys like Maycock haven’t really been able to separate Ponder, Dalton, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett. A lot of scouts say in years there was free agency before the draft, those guys would have been second- or third-rounders.

Not now.

“I think there’s panic amongst the teams that need quarterbacks, and ultimately would it make sense for the Vikings to have a Kevin Kolb or a (Marc) Bulger or a (Donovan) McNabb or a Palmer if he was available?” Mayock asked. “Maybe, because I think the worst thing you can do is reach for a quarterback and miss.”

Mayock thinks teams are going to be reaching.

“If you’re not going to take Ryan Mallet because of off the field considerations, then you’re going to reach for a guy that you’re going to have to develop at some point,” he said. “And can you come back in the second round and get a guy or trade back into the first and get a Dalton or get a (Ricky) Stanzi or get a Ponder. And in all honesty, they’ve got great intangibles, but they don’t have the same physical characteristics of the other guys.”

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Posted in Hobson's Choice | 23 Comments »

23 Responses to “How long is the QB reach?”

  1. By coachwine on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    Quarterback is the prime position where the body/talents has to match the system and the best guy for that could even come in round 2 or 3 (Kenny Anderson) It would be wise for the man devising the system to have ownership of that pick and fans not to pre-suppose anything. Jordan Palmer is taking ownership of the offense during the strike and could be a better fit for the system than he was for Coach Bratkowski’s. He’s certainly going to have a bit of a head start.

  2. By bengalpirate on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    There is always speculation, smokescreens, disinformation, etc. etc. by teams who hope a player slips downwards to them, because of real/alleged issues. The Bengals must remain true to their grading of players and take the best players available at each draft slot. If there is someone they have graded really high, who is still available at close to the 35th pick, then by all means, trade up for him. Stick to your guns on the 4th pick in the 1st round, unless a team makes an obscene offer. Please don’t reach more than 2 or 3 slots up in every other round and it could really pay off, if some of the multitude of defensive gems falls into lower rounds than pre-draft anticipations by the draft gurus and actual teams.

  3. By tralfaz1127 on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    This could be the biggest draft ever for the Bengals, and I sure hope they don’t mess it up. They need to let the other teams panic and take advantage of it. Trade down for picks if possible, and if not, take the best position players that fall into their laps. There is no QB in this draft worth trading back up to get. I hope they wait until the 3rd round and if there is a developmental guy (Kapernick) then make a move. There will be free agency of some kind, and a vet (Hassleback) who could come in for one year, pick up the system, and be a serviceable QB, will be available. Load the “team” up this year, and if they still have the Palmer situation in 2012 then make the jump on a better group of QB. In fact a bad 2011 would get them Andrew Luck.

  4. By overthroensamoan on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    Can you say SMOKESCREEN. I can see Dalton maybe moving up but Ponder?? Each year it’s the same thing. Nothing but gamesmanship. Don’t be shocked that between now and Thursday rumors will abound that Tyrod Taylor and Mitch Mustain were flying up everyones boards.

  5. By 454rat on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    tralfaz1127 I agree with you 100%. DO NOT trade up in a panic. DO NOT overpay. Draft best players who can help now. Get Hasselbeck or Collins for a year and deal with the QB issue next year.

  6. By 303bengalguy on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    What are we doing with Palmer??? Are we going to get anything for him? He’s the lynchpin here. Do you think there are any conversations regarding a trade once the CBA gets figured out? If the 49ers can say they have a deal lined up w/ Alex Smith, surely we can have a deal lined up for a trade once we’re able to right? I want Peterson BAD. If I’m running the show here, regardless of Palmers situation, I take Peterson, then if there’s a QB with promise, take him in the 2nd. If I said “here’s your Ed Reed to plug in for the next 10 years” you take him right? We’re “this close” to having an elite D and Peterson is that guy that transforms our secondary (if paired w/ J-Joe and Hall) into a Steeler-esque type unit, only better, because we’d have better corners.

  7. By belgariontheking on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    Personally, I don’t think we’ll have to trade up from 35 to get Dalton. I just don’t see any more than 4 QBs going in the first round, based on the analysis I’ve read. That would be Newton, Gabbert, Locker, and Mallet, not necessarily in that order. If Jay is in love with him, that’s higher praise than I’ve heard about any of the other quarterbacks in this draft. The other 2nd (or maybe 3rd) round QB I’ve heard good things about is Colin Kaepernick from Nevada. Also, personally, I think we should trade for Jimmy Clausen. I think we can combine both of these. Wait until after the first round is over, then you have something like 21 hours to put together a deal with Carolina after they pick Cam Newton atop the first round. Get that done, and we can pick the best safety or RB in the 2nd round while we’ve just spent a 4th or 3rd round pick on our QB.

  8. By kaptkurt on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    Funny overthroe but I liked Mustain as a late round steal until the drug bust. I would love to see Von Miller or AJ Green in round 1 and in true Bengal fashion draft a great player who drops ( Dillon, Ocho, Malaluga, Esiason, Dunlap, Steinbach) in round 2. If that player happens to be a QB great but the odds of him seeing any playing time in 2011 are almost nil. I can’t see any rookie QBs being close to ready to take the field until the latter part of the season at best. I watched Gruden interview Newton and I cringed when Newton couldn’t recite a play from the Auburn playbook. Contrast that with a piece I saw where Ron Jawarski was raving about a Heisman QB named Palmer and his work ethic off the field studying film and in game prep.

  9. By jamison007 on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    Time for the smokescreens. From now until draft day, I encourage Bengal organization to throw all kinds of smokescreens out there, totally hype up our QB pick and the whole lot…throw all the other teams off…but in the end stay very true to best player at each draft spot. With all the uncertainty in the league, if we get best available value at each pick we will get our squad very solid this year. Plus, I like how Jordan has “manned up” and taken a leadership role in getting our squad in shape…that alone gives him the right to fight for the starting job. It will also certainly make Palmer take another look at his situation. Thats right, its time to play the jealous brother card. We need Jordan talking up the new playbook and raving about how eager the young guys are to take over starting roles, etc. WHO DEY!!!

  10. By tralfaz1127 on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    @belgariontheking I like the idea of trading for a QB like Clausen, Kolb, Flynn, etc… but until there is a CBA teams can only trade draft picks and not players on their own roster.

  11. By wfstott on Apr 22, 2011 | Reply

    I would think that we (Bengals) should have the best inside scoop on the quarterbacks available. Johm Gruden is suppose to be somewhat of an expert, and with the camp or QB work outs that he has had in the last couple of weeks, and since Jay Gruden is his brother, I am quite sure we should get some pretty good feedback and recommendations on who to take for the system both Grudens are familiar with. If he recommendeds to pick Cam Newton or Gabbert in the first, or Dalton in the 2nd or third, I think thats what w should do.

  12. By drfever73 on Apr 23, 2011 | Reply

    This CBA is killing us the most. I would have to trade Carson for second and Chad for a third. I would draft Von Miller and a Lineman and receiver in the second. Then pair of safeties in the third. THe Carson and Chad money would be used to resign Jo Jo and Benson. I would roll with Jordan and Lefevour this year and get the team and scheme primed for guy next year. I would look for an old vet to play second or third string QB. Oh sorry, I have to wake up now. No Way am I drafting a first round QB this year with a shortened season and a new system….behind a line with holes. Can you say David Klingler? Shell shocked and ruined while setting the franchise back years! Build the team right and watch a journeyman QB be more successful than Carson Palmer ever was.

  13. By mwindle1973 on Apr 23, 2011 | Reply

    I think there are teams smokescreening. And I think we might be one of them. But I don’t think the media is smoke screening and I agree with them too. I see 4 QBs gone in the 1st round minimum. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see 7. I have no faith that the media has these QBs graded in the same order as teams. In fact I think each team will see this group differently. If your a team without a QB, having trouble selling tickets. What’s a bigger financial risk? Reaching for QB and paying top 10 $$ instead of top of 2nd round $$. Or risking going 4-12 or worse again and not selling a game out for another 2-3 seasons? And a QB in free agency or trade after the draft could be more expensive and just as big of a risk. If Gabbert & Newton will go #1 & #3 we will be forced to reach for another QB at the #4 spot, trade down (if we can), or pick up one of the top talents.

  14. By mwindle1973 on Apr 24, 2011 | Reply

    Found a great article on Ryan Mallett. I’ve spent about the last month trying to make the case that he is possibly the best QB in the draft. This article first dives into the supposed character issues. And what the rumours and facts are, and what former teammates and coaches say about him. In fact the article debunks one of the biggest knocks on him, that he wasn’t voted team captain by his mates. When in fact in 09 he was sole captain & in 10 was one of six co-captains. It goes on to scour over his play on film. With about 45 mins of clips to look at too. I think this guy is going to be a steal for whover gets him. Here’s the link to the article by David Hyde.

  15. By mwindle1973 on Apr 24, 2011 | Reply

    I don’t think the height thing matters. In the case of Dalton or Mallett. Drew Brees is 6′ 209, Joe Montana was 6’2″ 204. Steve Young was 6’2″ 215. Kurt Warner 6’2″ 214. In the case of Mallett he was measured at the combine at 6’6.6″ 253. Peyton Manning is 6’5.5″ 230. The closest comparison is Joe Flacco who is 6’6.3″ 238. So his height thing is overblown. When he is actuall just 1/4 of an inch taller than the current tallest starter in the league.

  16. By lowyam on Apr 24, 2011 | Reply

    IThe Bengals should think long and hard about not drafting a QB until at least the 4th round if at all. It’s clear the QB class is way overvalued and even if Carson does not come back, there will be several free agent QB’s who could be had and who will fit inthe West Coast system (Hasselbeck, McNabb etc..). They will ramp up much quicker and can give us a year or two of reasonable production. Does anyone think we will be competitive for a Super Bowl this year or even next realistically? By using the first 3 picks on the best available of the following positions: receiver, defensive lineman, linebacker, corner, safety, O-line- we can markedily upgrade the whole team and then look for a QB to develop later if they are available or just wait until next year.

  17. By hobsonschoice1 on Apr 25, 2011 | Reply

    I agree with a lot of you guys on this thing. If they can’t trade DOWN from No. 4, then sit there and take one of the elite in Green, Miller, Peterson, Dareus, or Fairley. If they can’t trade up out of No. 35 to get the QB they want, take the best player a la Dunlap, Maualuga, Whitworth, instead of a need. Going for the need always seems to bite you in one way or the other (Ratliff, Irons).

    And if people are going to reach for QBs like everyone says, there will be a a hell of an offensive tackle or defensive end there.

    Then, you have to go rent a quarterback. But that’s not easy, either. What veteran QB is going to come in not knowing quite what the QB situation is?

    It’s easy to say trade Palmer and get value for him. But this draft shows you how valuable he is with third-round projections going in the first. You can’t trade him until a CBA is signed and then when you can trade him, you’re dealing with future draft picks that yet to have a real value.

    If teams are panicking for QBs now, they will in 2012, too. The more the Bengals keep him, doesn’t he get more valuable with the QB shortage?

  18. By picksix29 on Apr 25, 2011 | Reply

    I remember reading a while back that the Miami Dolphins were interested in Acquiring Carson Palmer. I think that they should keep that in mind no matter what thay do on draft day. Even if they grab a guy who they feel is the QB of the future, which I think they should in Gabbert with the 4th pick assuming he’s still there, I wouldn’t dismiss the Idea of grabbing up Chad Henne. This would give the Bengals some options. Now you have an NFL tested QB to run your offense while you groom the rookie. Also, what if Henne turns out to be the man. I think he’s a good QB. He seems like he’s smart, gets the ball out and seems to be a LEADER. That is something that I personally was never comfortable calling Carson Palmer. I know a lot of people are sad to see him go but I believe it’s a blessing in disguise.

  19. By whodeysteve on Apr 25, 2011 | Reply

    This QB draft class remind’s me too much of the 99 QB draft class. Theres Tim Couch(Being A Kentucky fan I remember this all to well) – The QB that was made the number one automatically because the class was weak this year it’s Blaine Gabbert a QB who really done nothing but is number one because of the QB class. There’s Akili Smith – The QB that had great numbers in college and combine and looked great in a uniform but the one question no asked was how he would preform in the NFL and if he could handle an NFL playbook this year it’s Cam Newton. There’s Donovan McNabb – A QB they said didn’t have the accuracy or ability to be a pocket passer but had all the intangibles and this year that’s Jake Locker. So if I’m the Bengals I don’t get all worked up if there is a run on QB’s.

  20. By mwindle1973 on Apr 26, 2011 | Reply

    Well we all agree, let’s hope the team sees that whiffing at #4 or trading up from 35 and whiffing, is far worse than not having a decent QB for 1 season. On another note. It’s completely possible that trades are allowed during this draft. Judge Nelson could give them a stay. But winning on appeal is very unlikely. I pretty confident that the lockout will be over by July. Now corrupt judges are abound at the federal level. But in such a high profile case I don’t see it, especially being an appeal. The NFL is operating on a very weak argument. That this is a labor dispute. But it stop being one the day the union decertified. So what the court is ultimately deciding is whether the union decertifying is legitimate. But how can it not be. First the law states they have the right to do so. Then case law (per the player’s suit of 1987) says the union has to decertify (and has the right to) in order to sue the NFL. That’s the only case the players have lost.

  21. By tepidfan31 on Apr 26, 2011 | Reply

    To begin, Brown has to get over his “snit” and trade Palmer. If Palmer takes a year off, his value would be far less next year, and there are several teams, who would be very interested; eg. Miami. Trade Ocho, and if Joseph is a problem, consider trading him. The money saved on these three guys is significant, and with a new agreement, drafted players will be less expensive than guys like Joseph. I think you can probably get a 2nd rounder for Palmer, a 3rd rounder for Ocho, and either a 1st or 2nd for Joseph. Now you have draft choices to move up or down in the draft. The best possible scenario would be to would be to get Peterson and then either Green or Jones. You may have to give up next year’s No. 1 to do so, but the needs are now!! BUT, Brown is the least creative person on the planet, so we’ll plod thought this draft as we have for the past 20 years.

  22. By mwindle1973 on Apr 27, 2011 | Reply

    I happen to appreciate Brown’s strategy in the Palmer situation. He’s a lawyer, you just can’t forget that with Brown. I think he has a strategy and over time I’ve begun to think he is right. And that he has the true leverage. If Palmer wants to retire he can. But to retire is take a year off at 31 is risky. Rust will start to compile quickly. I think Brown is plainly williing to pay him and any other QB he drafts or signs if Palmer does show up at camp to force a trade. Plus he could smokescreening. Hobson makes a great point above. Palmer’s trade value should be greatest after the draft and after free agency. 13 teams need a QB. There’s not enough to go around. 2-4 teams will still need one badly at that point and his value should be at a maximum then. Plus Palmer could be smokescreening about retirement.

  23. By mwindle1973 on Apr 30, 2011 | Reply

    4 went in the first 12 picks but only 6 went in the first 3 rounds go figure. There were some teams that reached heavily for a QB. I’m really proud of Brown and co. for not reaching at #4. We’ve had a great draft. In fact Kiper singled us ot as the best team draft so far. But other than our QB situation. What was the areas of weakness last season and coming into the draft? Did we lack WRs last year? No, it was the Oline & ROT in particlular. It was also SS & FB. Let’s hope we can target those postions in the 4th and 5th round. Believie or not there are several good ROT/OG prospects left. There are a few SS prospects too. And unlike last year there are sme FB prospects worthy of drafting. Let’s hope we can land a guy named Shaun Chapas. Great blocker (pass and run) and can catch the ball well.

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